If you’re a conservative, think back to this time four years ago when the polls showed President Obama would be re-elected but you chose to ignore the polls or “unskew” them, based on the “scientific” theory that the polls were wrong because they had “oversampled” Democrats. Remember how utterly devastated you were on election night and in following days?
If you still think Trump is going to win, try this: Google “2012 Electoral Map” and pull up a US map with the number of electors noted on each state. Then, make a list of all the states you think Trump will win and tally up all the electors and see if you can come up with the necessary 270.
For example, here’s my list for Hillary:
3—District of Columbia
That’s 253 etched-in-stone no-question-whatsoever electoral votes for Hillary.
She needs 17 more.
And for those, we go to Nevada (6) and North Carolina (15).
Hillary has consistently led Trump in the polling averages in Nevada since her impressive convention, except for a brief period around September 11. And since that very brief period, she has steadily widened the gap. And with 12 days left, there simply isn’t enough time to change the trajectory. Hillary will win Nevada.
President Obama won North Carolina in 2008 but lost it in 2012. Hillary currently leads Trump by “only” 2.5 points. But here’s why Hillary will win North Carolina: she has led Trump in the polling averages since August 1, 2015.
A poll here or there could be wrong. A poll taken only in one timeframe could be wrong. But polling averages — averaging together the polling results from several different polls taken during roughly the same period — are extremely accurate. And if one candidate leads another in every polling average that has been calculated on a consistent basis for a year and three months, the result may as well be announced by Moses from the top of Mount Sinai after a divine visitation — it’s immutable.
Add another 15.
That gives Hillary 274.
Trump can win Ohio (18) and Florida (29) and Pennsylvania (20) and he still won’t win the presidency because he can’t get to 270.
Because after she gets 274, there are only 264 left to get. Period.
And right now, she’s leading in Pennsylvania by more than 5 points and she’s up by 3 in Florida.
I think she’ll end up with 323 to Trump’s 215. But she only needs 270.
And she will get 274, no matter what.
And just for reference:
President Obama = 365
McCain = 173
President Obama = 332
Romney = 206
Before you fall for all the “skewed/rigged” talk again and end up sorely disappointed on election night, sit down with an electoral map like I did and see if you can work out a plausible path to 270 for Trump. Or if that’s too much trouble, go to the Fox News Election Prediction interactive electoral map and choose “2012 Results” from the pull-down menu as your starting point. Then choose the blue teardrop to turn blue any state you think Hillary will win that President Obama didn’t and use the red teardrop to turn red any state you think Trump will win that Romney didn’t.
My prediction of 323 for Hillary and 215 for Trump comes from giving Iowa and Ohio to Trump and giving North Carolina to Hillary. I don’t buy the media hype that Georgia, Texas and Utah will flip.
But spend a little time and effort and play around with a list or with the interactive map.
Because you can’t say — the day after the election — that the election was “stolen” or “rigged” if two weeks before the election you can’t chart a plausible course to 270.