Conservatives are doing it again. The same thing they did in 2012 that led to great moaning and groaning and gnashing of teeth the morning after the election. They have suspended all belief in the basic principles of math.
Much like delusional Bernie supporters, they seem convinced that the person who has consistently led in the delegate count and never been behind, is imploding in keeping with their inaccurate predictions; and, that second place is actually better than first.
Remember in 2012 when conservatives all fell for “unskewed” polling? To the credit of the discredited shyster who shilled that sham, he knew his audience: conservatives who believe in the “liberal bias” of media and who don’t believe in science. And with that Trumpian understanding of conservatives, he led them off the cliff like the Pied Piper of Hamelin leading rats off of Koppelberg Hill into the winding Weser River out to the frigid North Sea.
This race has been decided for months. There’s always a point at which you just know. For Walter Mondale it was during the debate when Reagan was asked if he thought age would be an issue:
“I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” ~ Ronald Reagan. October 21, 1984
Mondale laughed, but later said if the camera had zoomed in, we would have seen the tears coming into his eyes:
“That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. I told my wife the campaign was over, and it was.” ~ Walter Mondale
I knew in January. In my January 22nd post, I definitively said Trump would be the nominee, primarily for one reason — he had tapped into white fear of “the blacks” “taking over,” the same fear Reagan exploited 36 years ago; a fear frenzically intensified by the mere presence of a black man in the White House.
The following day, I elaborated, explaining that the final straw which led me to this conclusion was the colossal blunder by Cruz of ridiculing “New York values” and Trump’s subsequent brilliant cloaking of himself in the mantle of 9/11, something Rudy Giuliani had unsuccessfully attempted in 2008 by famously constructing his every sentence with “a noun, a verb, and a 9/11.”
So it wasn’t for nothing that Trump trounced with 60% of the New York vote Tuesday night. He did so for two reasons: 1.) New York, like the South, enjoys a higher-than-national-average percentage of people of color amongst its population and, as the percentage of black residents increases, so does white fear and the consequent Reaganesque racist support of Trump; and, 2.) New York is ground zero for Cruz-ridiculed “New York values.”
And in spite of media downplaying it as an expected home-turf win, the margin made it a really big deal — it mathematically eliminated Cruz from contention and put Trump on an easy path to winning on the first ballot.
And it left Cruz and Kasich reduced to ridiculously absurd positions — Kasich put the blame for his loss on the Never Trump campaign not being “serious” about stopping Trump, not realizing his logic means the Kasich campaign wasn’t serious about winning. And Cruz made the case that Kasich should get out because he shouldn’t come to the convention and try to get the delegates to vote for him when he only won one state, not realizing that he (Cruz) will be asking delegates to do the exact same thing — award the nomination to someone who won fewer states than Trump.
Tuesday night, MSNBC pundits slogged through their reporting, obviously disappointed with the Trump trouncing, still trying to convince themselves and viewers that the candidate they helped create, doesn’t have a real chance of becoming the nominee. For weeks they have tried to spin Trump’s first place standing as a loss because “he can’t cross the 50% threshold.” Rachel Maddow even tried to downplay Trump’s 60% win last night by saying he didn’t win Manhattan, home to Trump Tower.
There are 57 counties and 5 boroughs in New York. Trump won 57 counties and 4 boroughs — everything but the borough of Manhattan, where he fell 3 percentage points behind Kasich. But he bested Kasich by 35 percentage points statewide. And Maddow still tried to spin that as a loss for Trump.
Lawrence O’Donnell has become an especially pathetic figure with his all-out love fest with Reince Priebus and falling all over himself to pump-up repeat guest Randy Evans, member of some impressive-to-Lawrence Republican committee and lawyer for Newt and Dennis Hastert.
What MSNBC pundits did, is the same thing that many evangelical conservatives did — they failed to heed the Proverb: “Can a man take fire into his bosom and not be burnt?”
They played-up Trump and gave him wall-to-wall coverage and provided him with uncompensated, unfettered, unchallenged, unexamined airtime just because it was good for ratings.
Evangelicals flirted with Trump for a different reason: after 8 years of unrequited hate for President Obama, Trump came in as a breath of fresh air, giving voice to their hate, personifying it, purging them of it.
But after the cathartic purgation, many evangelicals — especially their leaders — now want to tame the tongue and return to more-muted levels of disdain for the different, back to when their hate was cloaked and racism coded and denial of both more plausible.
But it’s too late. Next Tuesday 172 delegates are up for grabs in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware. Indiana’s 57 will be in play on May 3rd. West Virginia’s 34 will be allocated on May 10th. New Jersey’s 51 and New Mexico’s 24 will be in contest on June 7. That’s 338 delegates, the bulk of which will be added to Trump’s existing 845, likely putting him over 1,150. And that still leaves 336 delegates from which Trump will easily get the 80 to 100 he will still need to put him over the top.
There are 40 days and 40 nights between the final primary day of June 7 and the beginning of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland on July 18. God flooded and remade Planet Earth in 40 days and 40 nights. Moses communed with God on top of Mount Sinai for 40 days and 40 nights, writing the law that still serves today as the basis of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Jesus fasted for 40 days and 40 nights in preparation for becoming the eternal sacrifice for the sins of the whole world.
Never Trump and Evangelicals and MSNBC and Cruz and Kasich, will need a miracle of no less magnitude to take this away from Trump during the 40 days and 40 nights.
All this talk about “Contested Convention™” is a mixture of fantasy and rubbish. Trump will win on the first ballot and conservatives will line up behind him like rats on Koppelberg Hill.